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(Automatic translation)

Relationship between GHG emissions due to transport by regions and income per

Pedro Jose Perez Martinez
postdoctoral research associate at the Center for Transportation Research TRANS AND T-UPM. Polytechnic University of Madrid

Andrés Monzón de Cáceres
University Professor Doctor Engineer of Roads, Channels and Ports - Director, Center for Transportation Research, TRANS and T-UPM - UPM

In this study emission estimates are made for the transport of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per year 2025 projected for the Autonomous Communities (CCAA). The estimates are based on an econometric model that explains the relations between GHG emissions per capita and growth of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

The model is based on annual data of the CCAA for the 1990-2002 period. The model is dynamic and specific to each region, so that long-term estimates of GHG per inhabitant elasticities. These elasticities depend on the GDP values ​​per inhabitant ranging from 1,67, in the case of regions with high income increments, to 0,98 in regions with low income increases. Elasticities emissions tend to be reduced in the future. The model reflects the similarities and differences between the CCAA and analyzes the likely evolution of these variables.

KEYWORDS: Emissions, Elasticity, Econometric model, Trends, Greenhouse Gas (GHG), Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

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